The Race for Second-Worst Party
Americans can’t stand the Democrats. So why are 2026 polls still competitive?
By Karl Rove March 19, 2025 The Wall Street Journal
If many Democrats weren’t already in a foul mood, recent polling might make them go bonkers.
A March 9 CNN survey gave the Democratic Party a 29% favorable, 54% unfavorable rating, the lowest approval rating the party has gotten from CNN this century. The Republican Party was at 36% favorable, 48% unfavorable.
Much of the dissatisfaction with Democrats comes from progressives angry that their party hasn’t fought President Trump harder. Fifty-seven percent of Democratic respondents told CNN that their party should “mainly work to stop” the GOP agenda, while 42% think Democrats should “mainly work with the Republicans” to get some Democratic ideas into legislation.
The Democrats who just want to fight are enraged at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. They wanted to shut down the federal government rather than pass a continuing resolution that funds it through this fiscal year. That would have been stupid. Mr. Schumer saved Democrats from being blamed for causing a shutdown.
Republicans dream of the day leftists like New York’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib take control of the other party. But more than enough mainstream Democrats remain to keep that from happening. Sensible Democrats recognize their party is already viewed as out of touch.
That problem is acute for Democrats in places they need to win next year to flip the House. In a Navigator Research survey for the House Democratic Caucus, 55% of voters in 62 battleground districts said Democrats are “more focused on helping other people than people like me.” Only 27% said Democrats were focused on helping people like them.
Just 39% percent of voters in swing districts believe Democrats have the right priorities and 42% think Democrats share their values. Only 39% think Democrats value work. It’s easy to see why these voters trust the GOP more on inflation by 7 points and the economy by 5.
Still, the generic ballot in the Navigator poll was tight, with 42% favoring Democrats and 40% Republicans.
Therein lies the GOP’s challenge. Americans think the Democrats are terrible, but it’s still a horse race. In part this is because 2024 was much closer than the Republican ebullience today might make you think. The GOP won only a 2.8-point margin in total votes across House races, leaving them with a slim five-seat margin. A 2- or 3-point swing in the vote next year would give Democrats a healthy House margin.
There was some good news for Republicans in a March 11 NBC survey. Mr. Trump hit his best approval number ever and voters seem pleased with some of his early wins. But 47% of voters approve of the job as he’s doing as president, while 51% disapprove. Only 37% strongly approve; 46% strongly disapprove.
Similarly, 44% of voters told NBC that things “are generally headed in the right direction” and 54% “feel that things are off on the wrong track.” That’s a distinct improvement from last November, when NBC News had “right direction” at 27% and “wrong track” at 54%. The positive movement is in part a reflection of Mr. Trump’s concrete achievements. For example, by a 55% to 43% margin voters approve of his handling of “border security and immigration.”
But these aren’t overwhelming figures, and voters are fickle. They often discount success and focus on the remaining rough patches. By 2026 Americans may have pocketed Mr. Trump’s progress in securing the border and judge him on the remaining issues affecting their lives. Voters told NBC that they largely frowned on the president’s handling of foreign policy (53% disapprove to 45% approve), economy (54% to 44%), and cost of living (55% to 42%). The stock-market decline, stubborn inflation and growing economic pessimism are real problems for the GOP as it looks ahead to 2026 and the possibility of sustaining Mr. Trump’s policies beyond the midterms.
Each party’s 2026 strategy will be the mirror image of the other’s. Republicans must get inflation under control, improve the economy, shrink the deficit, and calm the world. Democrats must position themselves to criticize Mr. Trump’s shortcomings credibly on these key issues. That requires them to look occasionally as though they’re working with the president. Voters like the GOP’s goals; Democrats must look like they disagree on the means more than the ends.
Resistance sings to the souls of left-wing Democrats. But it’s a dead end. Wiser Democrats know their party must pivot in word, deed and tone to a more centrist, constructive approach. Their values must align more with those of ordinary Americans, tired of being lectured and bullied by insufferable progressives. Change is never easy—but in this case, it’s essential. Let’s see which party can position itself for 2026 more convincingly.
Mr. Rove helped organize the political-action committee American Crossroads and is author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).